Nintendo Switch Predicted to Dominate Next-Gen Console Sales

Despite not yet being released, DFC Intelligence, a video game market research firm, predicts the Nintendo Switch 2 will be a best-seller. Their 2024 Video Game Market Report and Forecast, released December 17th, projects sales of 15-17 million units in 2025, and over 80 million by 2028. This makes the Switch 2 the "clear winner" in the next-gen console race, surpassing competitors Microsoft and Sony.

This forecast stems from the Switch 2's anticipated 2025 release, giving it a significant head start over competitors. The report suggests that limited competition in this early period will also contribute to its success. DFC Intelligence acknowledges that Sony and Microsoft are developing handheld consoles, but these are still in early stages, likely releasing around 2028. This three-year gap positions the Switch 2 for sustained dominance, with the report indicating only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve notable success. A hypothetical "PS6" is mentioned as a potential strong contender due to PlayStation's established player base and strong intellectual properties.

The Switch's remarkable success, surpassing PlayStation 2 lifetime US sales with 46.6 million units sold, further supports this projection. Circana (formerly NPD) analyst Mat Piscatella highlighted this achievement on BlueSky, noting the Switch is now the second best-selling console in US history, behind only the Nintendo DS. This is noteworthy despite a reported 3% year-over-year sales decline.

DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive outlook for the video game industry as a whole. Founder and CEO David Cole states the industry has grown over 20 times in three decades and is poised for renewed growth after a two-year slump. 2025 is predicted to be a particularly strong year, fueled by new releases like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI. The expanding gaming audience, projected to surpass 4 billion players by 2027, combined with the rising popularity of mobile gaming and esports, contributes to this optimistic forecast. Increased hardware purchases for both PCs and consoles further bolster this positive trend.